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Research on the timing of events during transition to adulthood, such as first union, sex and, birth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) focused predominately on measures of central tendency, notably median or mean ages. In this report, we adopt a different perspective on this topic by examining disparities in the timing of these events in 46 LMICs, spanning four decades. Using Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate ages at which 25%, 50%, and 75% of women have first union, birth, and sex. We compute interquartile ranges to measure within-country variation and disparities in the timing of sexual initiation and family formation. Variation in the timing of first union, birth, and sex generally increases as the median ages at these events increase. Disparities in the timing of first union and birth grew in West Africa and Latin America, and women who experience these events relatively early increasingly lag behind women who experience them relatively late. Documenting trends in measures of central tendency is insufficient to capture complexity of ongoing changes because they mask growing disparities in the timing of family formation across many LMICs. These results are important for assessing progress towards achievement of SDGs related to reduction of early marriages and pregnancies and highlight a need for more holistic approaches to measuring timing of family formation. 

The Brazilian period fertility rate (PTFR) dropped from six to 1.8 between 1950 and 2010. Due to the shifts in the timing of fertility, the PTFR might be providing a misleading picture of fertility levels. Moreover, the national average hides important educational differences, as in 2010, the PTFR was 2.3 among the lower educated, whereas it had fallen to 1.5 among the higher educated. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) – a measure that is free from tempo distortions – and for the educational differences in completed fertility have not been previously studied. Due to the scarcity of time series of fertility rates, the application of CTFR forecasting methods outside of high-income countries (HICs) has been rare, and has been largely limited to population-level analysis. We use four Brazilian censuses to forecast the CTFR for the total population and by educational level using rates reconstructed with indirect techniques. The results of four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is likely to decline to 2.1 for the 1980 cohort, and to 1.9 for the 1984 cohort. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to remain stark – at between 0.7 and 0.9 depending on the cohort and the method – and to be larger than they are in HICs with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted, including by educational level in settings with limited data. Finally, we call for more research on the educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries. 

This research note illustrates the importance of a holistic approach to family demography and children’s well-being. Using the family configurations published in a previous study, we show that a configurational measure of family patterns predicts better the country-level proportion of stunted and wasted children across 75 low- and middle-income countries than 20 single family-related variables, world regions, and the Human Development Index. We contend that demographers need to do a better job of measuring social systems because individuals’ choices are influenced by contexts that are better represented with measures that capture multiple related factors (holistic approach) than with a single variable (analytical approach).